History of Islam

History of Islam
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Muslim demographics

Currently (as of 2017) Islam fulfils spiritual needs of about 1.8 billion humans on this planet according to Pew Research Center, a social research organization based in the United States of America.  If these statistics of Pew Research Center, that were generated on January 21, 2017, are true then every fourth person on this planet is Muslim.1  Here one should keep in mind that measuring numbers of any religious group in whole world is extremely tedious task and can be laden with errors.2 Main problem lies in defining who belongs to that particular religion.  Then comes the logistic of collecting correct samples from so many countries around the world.

Presently, there is no country or territory in the word that doesn’t have any Muslim resident.  Even Israel has got Muslim population.  Countries where Muslims make majority of the population are generally called ‘Muslim countries.’3  Over fifty countries fall under this definition.   They are, in alphabetical order, Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Brunei, Burkina Faso, Chad, Cocos (Keeling) Islands, The Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Gambia, Guinea, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Libya, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali, Mauritania, Mayotte, Morocco, Niger, Oman, Pakistan, Palestinian Territories, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, Western Sahara and Yemen.  In addition, some counties have a large Muslim minority.  Jones defines ‘large minority’ as being between 30% to 50%.4 About seven countries, namely, Ivory Coast, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinae-Bissau, Macedonia, Nigeria and Tanzania fall under this category.  Two countries need special mention here.  One is India and other is Russia.  Though Muslim make only 14.2 % of Indian population, their number is big and they account for 10.9 % of total Muslims in world.  Russia has significant pockets of Muslim communities, which make about 11% population of the country.5

Interestingly, only 15% of Muslims are Arabs.  By far, the largest populations of Muslims live in South and Southeast Asia, which account for 62% of Muslims.6  About 20% Muslims live in countries where they do not hold majority.  The largest population of Muslims living in one country is Indonesia.7

Two economically most significant regions of world lodge small minorities of Muslims.  One is the USA and other is Europe.  In the USA Muslims constitute 1.1% of total population.8  In Europe they are about 4.9% of the population.9

Concentration of Muslims in certain countries/regions is consistent with concentrations of other religious groups in certain countries/regions of world.  For example, 50% of Christians live in 10 countries of the world.

World Muslim populations map

82% of Jews live in the United States and Israel.  62% of non-affiliated live in China.  94% Hindus live in India, 73% of adherents of folk religions live in China.10, 11

Fastest growing religion

Islam is the fastest growing religion.

Recent centuries have seen exponential growth in human population the world over.  We were only two billion just two hundred years ago and stood at a figure of seven billion in 1990.  World population growth rate peaked in 1962.  Since then it has a downward trend.12 This downwards trend of population growth is not equally shared across all religions of the world.  Growth rates of Muslims and Christians have not decreased proportionately to other religions.13

Fastest growth of Muslims is a direct result of their high fertility rate.  It is 3.1 children per woman as compared to world average of 2.5 children per woman.  Actually, out of all religious groups of world only Muslims at 3.1 children per woman and Christians at 2.7 children per woman have higher growth rate than world average.  Cut off fertility rate for any culture, group or religion to survive is considered 2.1 children per woman conventionally.  It means Hindus at 2.4 and Jews at 2.3 children per woman are maintaining themselves.  All other religions, like Folk religions at 1.8, non-affiliated at 1.7 and Buddhists at 1.6 children per woman are decreasing.14

Why some religions are growing faster than others? Social scientists are reluctant to see any relationship between population growth rate and religious beliefs.  They are more prone to attach factors like poor socio-economic conditions and illiteracy among women to the growth rate.  This is true that Muslim population is growing fast in regions of world that are already growing population wise.  However, data from countries lodging sizable population of many different faiths shows that Muslims are growing faster than other religious groups in those countries.  Let’s take an example of India.  According to the census of 2011 statistics released by Registrar-general and Census Commissioner of India and reported by ‘The Hindu’ New Delhi on August 25, 2015 the Muslim population of India grew by 24.6 % between 2001 and 2011, while the Hindu population grew only 16.76 % during the same period.  Higher growth rate of one religious group over other group of the same country has definitely something to do with religious beliefs.

Due to widespread availability of reliable contraceptives, pregnancy is no longer a side effect of sex.  It is always a planned event in Muslims and non-Muslims alike.  A couple takes enormous risk when it decides to reproduce.  Both will be burdened with tremendous financial responsibility.  Their personal liberty will shrink.  Their life style will change for ever.  Their ease of changing sex partner will be adversely affected.  They should have some compelling reasons to procure.  One of the reasons, probably, is their religious conviction.  If fertility rate cannot be attached straightaway with religious believes still it is probably positively associated with religiosity of a couple.

While increase in Muslim population worldwide is attributed to their higher fertility rate, increase in Muslim population in Europe and Americas is result of immigration.15 If we look at the cross section of Muslim population in the USA in 2014 we find only 36% Muslim adults are born in the USA.  61% of them are immigrants.16 Most startling growth of Muslims is observed in Europe in recent years.  Total Muslim population of 28 European countries (it includes Great Britain) and Norway and Switzerland in 2010 was 19.5 million.  It constituted about 3.8% share of general population.  In mid-2016 total Muslim population in the same countries increased to 25.8 million and Muslim share of general population increased to 4.9%.  This increase is due to two factors. One, higher fertility rate among Muslims already living in Europe as compared to other religions, and two, immigration into Europe.  Some countries of Europe have substantially high share of Muslim populations, for example 8.8 % of France’s population is Muslim and 8.1 % of Sweden’s population is Muslim.17

Lately, religious switching (conversion from one religion to other) as a means of increasing or decreasing numbers of adherents of a particular faith has come under research scrutiny. Religious switching is very common in ‘the West’.  For example 44% of Americans do not currently belong to their childhood faith.  Additional 9% had changed their religious affiliations at one point in their life but returned to their original faith.  Only 47 % people in the USA believe in their childhood faith.18, 19  In such a scenario British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) announced in 2010 that about seventy thousand people in Britain, mostly women, switch to Islam yearly.  But further research in the field has proven that Muslims are not increasing in number in ‘the West’ due to conversion.  Data from the USA gives a clear picture.  About 23% of American adults who were raised as Muslim no longer identify themselves as Muslim according to analysis of data collected in 2014.20, 21  And 23% of American adults who are Muslims are converts from other faiths to Islam.22  As a whole switching has no effect on number of Muslims in the USA.  This particular study also looks at where those 23% Muslims went who left their religion.  55% of those Muslims who abandoned their childhood religion became non-affiliated, 22% accepted Christianity and 21 % accepted some other religion than Christianity (some of them became Buddhist, Hindu or Jain and some are just spiritual) while 3% don’t know about their religion.  The study also looks at the reasons why did Muslims leave their religion. A quarter of them who left Islam (25%) had issue with religion itself, 9% of them had issues with Islam,23 16% looked towards other religions/ways for spirituality, 14 % cited personal reasons for leaving Islam and 2% left it for family reasons.  25% of those who abandoned Islam were either themselves not clear about their reasons to abandon their religion or did not answer the question.  Interestingly, 22% of those who left Islam were Iranian immigrants who had come to the USA in the wake of Iranian revolution of 1978 and 1979.  The study also looked at those who converted to Islam.  77% of them were raised as Christians, 19% were non-affiliated, 4% had some faith other than Christianity and 1% did not know their previous religion.  The reasons they gave for switching to Islam are varied.  But if we try to look at a theme underlying all the reasons given by them, 79% of them were simply impressed by Islam.  Only 17% entered into Islam due to relationship/marriage or family.  4% were either unclear for their reason or did not like answering it.24

As a matter of fact, religious switching is not changing Muslim demographics in any region of the world.  Even in Sub Saharan Africa where both Christianity and Islam are relatively new and religious switching is still taking place, net effect on Islam is zero.25  Switching religion is not fashionable in Muslim-majority countries.  Moreover, there is statuary restriction on such practice in many countries.  In 2013 thirty nine countries around globe had legal restrictions limiting freedom to convert from one religion to another and 66 countries had laws limiting efforts to persuade others to change their religion (proselytization).26  Most of such countries are those where Muslims have majority.

In a very interesting study Barro and Hwang observed phenomenon of religious switching in 40 European countries.27  This study found that on a whole frequency of religious switching in any given area depends upon the cost of switching and the cost of remaining in ‘wrong’ religion. Various factors are responsible for religious switching. Religious conversion rates are positively related to religious pluralism of a country and levels of education in that country; they are negatively related to government restrictions on religious conversion and a history of Communism.  Conversion rates are independent of GDP of a country, presence of state religion, and the extent of religiosity in that country.  Original religion of a convert is a very small factor in religious conversions except when it is Islam.  Being originally Muslim is a negative factor for conversion.

Reliable data is not available about relative strengths and distribution of major Muslim sects.  Pew Research Center guesses that 90 – 95% people of Iran, 65 – 75% of Azerbaijan, 65 – 75% of Bahrain, 65-75 % of Iraq 45 – 55 % of Lebanon, 45 – 55 % of Syria, 15 – 20% of Afghanistan, 10 -15 % of Pakistan, 10 – 15% of Saudi Arabia, 10 – 15% of Turkey and less than 1% of Egypt are Shias. This Shia Sunni divide is more prominent in the Middle East.  For example, 74% of Muslims in Kazakhstan and 56% of Indonesia say they are ‘just Muslim’ when asked about their sect.28

Islam in politics

Religion influences politics more in Muslim-majority countries than anywhere else in the world.  Almost all ‘Muslim countries’ have political parties whose agenda is to enforce Islam after coming to power, sometimes called ‘Islamist parties.’  They are mainstream political groups and have nothing to do with ‘terrorism.’  Moreover, secular political parties working in Muslim-majority countries do not claim that they are alienated to Islam.  Support for Islamic parties varies widely from country to country and time to time.  For instance, it was 55% in Egypt, 55% in Tunisia, 54% in Afghanistan, 46% in Jordan, 43% in Malaysia, 41% in Bangladesh, 21% in Palestine, 16% in Kosovo, 12% in Bosnia-Herzegovina, 11% in Azerbaijan and 9% Kazakhstan in 2013.29

Pew Research Center examined 199 countries of world for state’s relationship with religion.  Out of them 106 (53%) countries do not have any official religious preference.  Another 10 (5%) are hostile to religion.30  43 countries (22%) have adopted one religion as their official one.  Out of them 27 (two third) countries have Islam as their official religion.  Most of them are located in the Middle East and North Africa.  In Asia pacific region they are Pakistan, Bangladesh and Malaysia.  13 countries have Christianity as their official religion, 2 have Buddhism and 1 has Judaism.  40 countries (20% of the sample) have their favoured or preferred religion.  Out of them 3 have Islam (8%)31 28 have Christianity (70%), 4 have Buddhism (10%) and 5 (13%) have multiple religions.32  This study shows that Muslim-majority countries tend to make Islam official religion of state.  On the other hand Christian-majority countries remain content with making Christianity a preferred religion.  Factually, a number of Christian majority countries (mentioned below in detail), that have a preferred religion are members of ‘commonwealth.’  Their head of state is British monarch who is stated to be ‘guardian of faith’ in their constitutions.  This clause is already redundant in many countries, for example Canada, where multi-culturalism is accepted doctrine.

The trend of designated state religion is also visible in Muslim-majority countries when we look at the countries which prescribe a religion for head of state.  In 30 countries of world, head of state must belong to a certain religion.  Out of them 17 (15% of world nations – Afghanistan, Algeria, Brunei, Iran, Jordan, Malaysia, Maldives, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Syria, Tunisia and Yemen) need him to be a Muslim.  Two (Andorra and Lebanon) need him to be a Christian.    Two (Bhutan and Thailand) want him to be a Buddhist.

World flags

Sample of world flags:  Religious symbols on most of them area easily recognizable.

One (Indonesia) wants him to be Pancasila.  (Pancasila is a summation of “common Cultural elements” of Indonesia, including belief in God).  All other countries of world (85%) allow citizens of any religious affiliation to be head of state.  A handful of countries do not allow member of religious clergy to run for head of the state.  They include Bolivia, Myanmar, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua and Venezuela.  16 countries, members of Commonwealth of Nations, including United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Grenada, Jamaica, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and Grenadines, Tuvalu, headed by a ceremonial monarch, need him to be ‘Defender of the Faith’.  Other countries like Denmark, Norway and Sweden also fall under this category.33

Religious restrictions on public are more rigorous in countries with official religion as compared to those without it.  Restrictions on religious freedom in countries with an official religion get 4.8 points on a scale from 0 to 10 where 0 stands for no restriction and 10 stands for complete restrictions.  Countries with preferred religion get 2.8 points on the same scale and countries with no official or preferred religion get 1.8 points.34  No country in world scores 0 in this scale.

When we look at flags of all countries of the world, situation is slightly different.  A third of word’s 196 countries currently have national flags that include religious symbols.  Of the 64 countries in this category, about half (48%) have Christian symbols and about a third (33%) have Islamic.  Christian symbols appear on 31 national flags in Europe, Asia and Pacific and Americas.  Islamic symbols are found on the flags of 21 countries in sub Saharan Africa, Asia pacific, Middle East and North Africa.  Buddhist or Hindu symbols appear on five flags (Cambodia, Nepal, India).  Israel has Jewish symbol.  Six countries have symbols associated with other religions (Japan, Uruguay, Argentina, and Mexico).35  It appears that flags of Muslim countries reflect their present political psyche as many have gained statehood in recent past.  Flags of non-Muslim countries reflect their past political psyche as they are generally older than Muslim countries.

Muslim-majority countries have organized themselves in Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the only international organization of countries based on religion.  It is the second largest international political organization after the United Nations Organization with 59 members currently (2018).36, 37

Form of government

‘Absolute monarchy is a system of government where power of authority is not restricted by any written law, legislature or customs’.38  This is one of many but similar definitions given for term ‘absolute monarchy.’  If we stick to this definition it is hard to find any absolute monarch in today’s world.  Rather it is difficult to find any in whole history.  The, so called, absolute monarchs have always been subject to certain rules that restrained their powers.  Most of the time, it was either traditions of the country they ruled upon or the state religion of the country they resided in.  Two patterns are more universally observed in political system of absolute monarchy than concentration of power in monarch’s hands.  One, very small pool of humans out of whom monarch can be chosen – usually one family. Two, no hard and fast rules to replace an incompetent monarch.  In 2018 if any semblance to this kind of government is present it could be Saudi Arabia, Oman, Brunei, United Arab Emirates, Swaziland and Vatican City.  Powers of monarchs have decreased in Jordan, Kuwait and Morocco but they still retain some powers and are not reduced to ceremonial monarchs.  Nobody knows exact reasons why absolute monarchy declined all over the world.  Guess work suggests that there was a change in public opinion about expectations of good governance.  There was no prescribed mechanism to replace a bad performing absolute monarch when people got fed up of him, and even if he ever abdicated, the pool out of which next monarch was selected was very small increasing chance of another inefficient monarch being selected significantly.  In almost all instances absolute monarchy was replaced by a system whereby a legal mechanism was created to replace a poor performing ruler and the pool of humans out of which a ruler could be chosen was greatly expanded.  Whenever these two conditions are met the system of government is not absolute monarchy, it is something else.  It can be called democracy.   Definition of democracy as ‘government of people, by the people, for the people’ picked from Gettysburg Address of Abraham Lincoln39 is very generic.  In reality democratic form of government varies greatly in details all over the world with only commonality of those two principals mentioned above.

In the beginning, when absolute monarchs fell out of people’s favour in Muslim-majority countries they were generally replaced by another kind of rulers.  Let’s call them ‘soldier kings.’  They came to power by help of armed forces/armed militias.  They did not proclaim that the right to rule a country should be hereditary but didn’t bother to design any constitutional mechanism of changing the ruler.  In a few cases, even if they designed a constitutional mechanism to change a ruler, they did not let this mechanism work properly.  This kind of rulers are on a decline in Muslim majority countries and are being replaced by democratic form of government gradually.  The only Muslim-majority country being ruled by a soldier king at the moment (2018) is Egypt.  Some Muslim-majority countries, like Yemen and Syria are in the midst of political conflict and might end up having a soldier king.  All others are enjoying democratic form of government.  However, democratic form of government is fragile in each and every Muslim-majority country except Iran.  In most countries the mechanism of changing an incompetent ruler has not yet attained indisputable acceptance.  Number of Muslims who prefer democracy over a strong leader is high in sub-Saharan Africa (72%) where soldier kings have been creating havoc in recent past.  It is also high in South East Asia (64%) where democratic form of government is well established.  However, it is relatively low in the Middle East and North Africa (55%) where one country is already being ruled by a soldier king and others might end up having one. Similar situation is in Southern and Eastern Europe (58%) and Central Asia (52%) who have been being governed by strong leaders flawlessly and do not see any need to replace them.  Appetite for democracy is particularly low in South Asia where only 45% prefer democracy over a strong leader.40 They have experienced multi party political system and are not impressed by it immensely.

Muslim’s concept of democracy is different from that of ‘the West.’ Muslims do not endorse political parties and leaders who would erode their basic religious values.  And they do not want chaos in the name of democracy.  That is the reason 79% Muslims in South East Asia, 69% in South Asia, 65% in Middle East and North Africa want role of religious leaders in politics.  However this demand is low in Central Asia (28%) and Southern and Eastern Europe (22%) where desire of a strong leader is high instead.41  This pzzolitical attitude of Muslims stems from their political goals which are different from those of ‘the West.’  Muslims wish economic prosperity in their countries.42 Civil liberties, as ‘the West’ sees them, are not yet on Muslim’s agenda.  ‘Democracy index’ devised by The Economist newspaper of United Kingdoms in 2010 and periodically revised, has a strong bias towards ‘cultural socialism’.  It is not capable of measuring democracy in Muslim majority countries.  No surprise that Turkey stands at 4.88 and Iran at 2.45, both very low points, on The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index in 2017, but if we ask Muslims Turkey and Iran are fully democratic countries.43

Political conflicts

If religion will play a major role in politics of a country, religious tensions are inevitable to rise. Many a times Muslim-majority countries got involved in armed conflicts during this century.  All armed conflicts are political by definition but in Muslim-majority countries they quickly take a sectarian/religious shape.  Syria and Yemen are vivid examples.  Armed conflicts are not limited to Muslim-majority countries.  Armed conflicts have happened in sub Saharan Africa and even in Europe during this century, for instance Ukraine.  In countries where Muslims are not in majority armed conflicts have generally taken tribal and national shape.

Blasphemy

Muslims are particularly sensitive to blasphemy.  According to Pew Research Center’s analysis in 2014 about one quarter of world’s countries and territories (26%) had anti-blasphemy laws.  The report found that laws against blasphemy were most common in the Middle East and North Africa, where 18 out of 20 region’s countries (90%) criminalize blasphemy.  Blasphemy laws can be found in all regions of the world.  In Europe 7 out of 45 countries (16%) and in Americas 10 out of 35 countries (29%) criminalize blasphemy.  Blasphemy laws are the least common in sub-Saharan Africa where 4 out of 48 countries (8%) criminalize blasphemy.44

Apostasy

Muslims tolerate Apostasy poorly.  However, it is not as inflammatory to Muslims as Blasphemy.  That is the reason apostasy laws are less common in world.  According to Pew Research Center analysis in 2014 only 25 out of 196 world countries and territories (13%) had laws or policies penalizing apostasy. Again, laws restricting apostasy were most common in the Middle East and North Africa, where 14 out of 20 region’s countries (70%) criminalize apostasy. Apostasy laws existed in only two other regions of the world – Asia-Pacific and sub-Saharan Africa.  Seven of the 50 countries (14%) in the Asia-Pacific region also had apostasy laws.  There were no anti apostasy laws in Europe or Americas in 2014.45

Muslims vs. ‘The West

21st century has seen a startling political phenomenon.  This is tensions between two civilizations – Muslim-majority counties and the countries who call themselves ‘the West.’

Nobody has successfully defined ‘the West’.46  Henry Kissinger considers ‘the West’ a political bloc consisting of countries mainly comprising of Europe and North America (NATO) who resisted communism.47  Thompson and Hickey extend Kissinger’s definition further to include the countries of Europe as well as countries of European colonial origin with substantial European ancestry populations in Americas and Oceania in ‘the West’.48  Arnold J. Toynbee spreads it further declaring that ‘the West’ is a belief in a civilization which originated in Western Part of Europe, spread all over the world by virtue of colonization and currently has its adherents in almost all countries including Muslim majority countries.49 Whatever the definition of ‘the West’ and whoever is included in ‘the West’, people around the globe have a common sense about this term.50

As animosity between Muslim-majority countries and ‘the West’ has begun, people at grass root level are feeling the heat.  In a cross sectional study published in 2011, 62% of people in France, 61% in Germany, 58% in Spain, 48% in USA and 38 % in Russia think relations between Muslims and Westerners are poor.  Same sentiments are expressed by 72% in Palestine, 62% in Turkey, 62% in Lebanon, 60% in Egypt, 58% in Jordan, 45% in Pakistan and 41% in Indonesia.51

Mutual distrust is on both sides.  Both sides attach negative stereotype to each other.  In 2011 68% of Muslims who were resident in seven Muslim-majority countries labeled Westerners selfish, 66 % labeled them violent, 64% labeled them greedy, 61% labeled them immoral, 57% labeled them arrogant and 53% labeled them fanatical.  On the other side of divide, 58% of westerners (Muslim population of these countries was excluded from the study) living in five western countries labeled Muslims fanatical, 50% labeled them violent, 39 % labeled them arrogant, 35% labeled them selfish, 23% labeled them immoral, and  20% labeled them greedy.  If we note positive stereotypes only 22% Westerners consider Muslims respectful to women, only 30% consider them tolerant and only 41% consider them generous.  Score of Muslims regarding honesty was higher than expected in the eyes of westerners. 51% of them rated Muslims honest. On the other side of divide, only 44 % Muslims consider westerners respectful to women, only 33% consider them honest, only 31% consider them tolerant and only 29% consider them generous.52

A glance at these figures gives an impression that, though both are hostile to each other, Muslims are more hostile to the westerners than they are to Muslims. Muslims feel more pissed off is also evident from the view expressed by about 52% median of those who were surveyed in seven Muslim-majority countries, Indonesia, Pakistan, turkey, Palestine, Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon that Western policies were responsible for lack of prosperity in Muslim countries.53

Westerners have expressed their anti-Muslim sentiments clearly in many surveys.  In 2017 Americans gave Muslims 48 points on a scale ranging from 0 to 100 where 0 represented the coldest and 100 the warmest.  They gave similar rating to Atheists (50)54  while their rating for Jews is higher at 63.55  Similarly, in Europe unfavourable view about Muslims varies from 28% in UK to 72% in Hungary.  Generally Western Europe is more tolerant to Muslims than Eastern and Southern Europe.56

People living in ‘the West’ and in Muslim-majority countries foster entirely different political ideologies.  When asked ‘what do you consider first as your identity, your religion or your nationality?’ overwhelming majority of Westerners in US, France, Germany, Spain, Britain and Russia answered that they identify themselves with their nationality rather than their religion. On the other hand overwhelming majority of Muslims living in Pakistan, Israel (Muslim only), Jordan, Turkey, Egypt, Palestine, Indonesia and Lebanon answered that they identify themselves by their religion rather than by their nationality.57  Jews living in Israel also identify themselves by religion rather than by their nationality.58

Westerners blame that Muslims are involved in acts of terrorism.  But Muslims tend to reject the blames of terrorism brought by westerners against them as mere propaganda.  In a study conducted ten years after attacks on Twin Towers in New York,   majorities of Muslims living in Indonesia, Pakistan, turkey, Palestine, Jordan, Egypt, Israel and Lebanon don’t believe that the attacks were carried out by Arabs.59
War

War is a situation where regular army of one country or a group of countries attack another country or a group of countries.  It is different from armed conflict whence two political groups (or a government and people) start fighting violently.  Sometimes other armed groups jump into the armed conflict and sometimes governments across borders start fanning the conflict either financially, politically or morally. 21st century has seen many conflicts but very few wars.  Some small scale wars were lodged to prop up a legitimate election winner in small countries, for example Comoros invasion on Anjouan in 2008 and invasion of Solomon Island in 2006.  Some were limited border conflicts for example, between India and Bangladesh in April 2001 or between Ethiopia and Eretria in June 2016.  Some were swift surgical strikes like USA’s attack on al Qaida in Somalia in September 2009.  Some of them can still be seen as conflict, for example, Israel’s invasion on Gaza in 2008 – 9 and in 2012.60  As far as large scale wars are concerned this century has seen a total of eight wars up to now (2018).  Out of them only one, Russia verses Georgia in 2008, was between two countries where Muslims were not a major factor.  All the remaining wars involved Muslim majority countries.  The century started by Afghan war of 2001 in which a coalition of Western countries attacked Afghanistan.

Home search by American Army men in Afghanistan in 2002

Home search by American Army men in Afghanistan in 2002.61

It was soon followed by Gulf War II of 2003 whereby Iraq was invaded by an alliance led by the USA.  Then in 2009 Ethiopia attacked Somalia in 2009 with full financial and political support of ‘the West’.  In 2011 war broke out again.  This time Libya was attacked by NATO forces along with their allies.  The last two wars of this century, which are still going on, started in 2011 in Syria and 2015 in Yemen.  Western countries, along with other countries like Turkey and Russia sent their forces to fight in Syria.  No Western country sent any force to fight in Yemen but they support one warring party over the other both politically and morally.62  Even politically naive can observe that earlier wars of 21st century involved full military commitment by ‘the West’ on ground and air, like in Afghanistan and Iraq.  Later the commitment reduced to air strikes only, like Libya and Syria.  Ultimately, the commitment deteriorated to verbal support, like Yemen.  Why is it so?  A clue comes from situation of the country which faced the first war of this century.  Despite invading Afghanistan with help of all the might at its disposal, including military, air force, courts of law, print and electronic media, latest technology, intelligence agencies and monetary funds, ‘the West’ could not achieve desirable results there.63  Almost similar is the situation of other Muslim majority countries invaded.

Does this mean there is a general realization among humans that war doesn’t solve problems?  Definitely not.  Public opinion across the board is in favour of war.  Pew Research Center performed a public opinion survey on 45000 people in 47 nations both rich and poor.  Majorities of people in 39 countries out of 47 countries surveyed agreed that use of force to solve international issues is sometimes justifiable.  This idea has got support in all regions of the world including powerful NATO countries and defenceless developing countries.  The only countries where minorities support this idea are Egypt, Jordan, South Korea, Ethiopia and Germany.  Most important finding was that Americans support idea of war more than other NATO countries.64  People are not against war per say, they can be against a particular war.   Historically, war is waged by a country that perceives itself stronger than its opponent.  And it ends when the perception proves to be correct by defeat of the weaker or when perception proves to be wrong and public opinion in aggressor country realizes it.  Probably later is the case in ‘the West’s’ reluctance to start a fresh full scale war at present.

End Notes:

  2.  Becky Hsu, Amy Reynolds, Conrad Hackett and James Gibbon ‘Estimating religious composition of all nations: an empirical assessment of the world Christian database’ journal for the scientific study of religion 47 (4) (2008): 678 – 693.
  3.  Jones Gavin W. Islam, the State and Population (London: C. Hurst & Co Publishers, 2005) 11 – 14.
  4.  Jones Gavin W. Islam, the State and Population (London: C. Hurst & Co Publishers, 2005).  11 – 14].
  5.  “Islam by country,” Wikipedia. Accessed on 15 Feb. 2018, https;//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/islam-by-country
  6.  “Muslims and Islam key findings in the US and around the World,” Pew Research Center, Michael Lipka. Accessed on 16 Feb. 2018, www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/08/09/muslims-and-islam-key-findings-in-the-u-s-and -around-the-world/.  
  7.  “Word Muslim Population,” accessed on 12 Feb. 2018, https://www.thoughtco.com/words-muslim-population-2004480.
  8.  “Muslims and Islam key findings in the US and around the World,” Pew Research Center, Michael Lipka. Accessed on 16 Feb. 2018, www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/08/09/muslims-and-islam-key-findings-in-the-u-s-and -around-the-world/.  
  9.  “Europe’s Growing Muslim Population,” Pew Research Center. Accessed 13 Feb. 2018, www.pewforum.org/2017/11/29/europes-growing-muslim-population/   
  10. “Many Religions Heavily Concentrated in one or two Countries,” Pew Research Center, Conard Hackett and Joseph Naylor, Accessed 17 Feb. 2018.  www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/08/27/many-religions-heavily-concentrated-in-one-or-two-countries/.
  11. In 2015 42% or world’s Jews lived in Israel and 40% in the USA. (“The Changing Global Religious Landscape,” Pew Research Center. Accessed 18 Feb. 2018, www.pewforum.org/2017/04/05/the-changing-global-religious-landscape/.)
  12. Michael Kremer. ‘Population growth and technological change: one million B.C. to 1990’. Quarterly journal of Economics (August 1993): 681 – 716.
  13. “The future of word religions: population growth projections, 2010 – 2050,” Pew Research Center. Accessed 18 Feb. 2018, www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050.
  14. “The future of word religions: population growth projections, 2010 – 2050,” Pew Research Center. Accessed 18 Feb. 2018, www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050.
  15. “Muslims and Islam key findings in the US and around the World,” Pew Research Center, Michael Lipka. Accessed on 16 Feb. 2018, www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/08/09/muslims-and-islam-key-findings-in-the-u-s-and -around-the-world/.
  16. “Growing share of U.S. immigrants have no religious affiliation,” Pew Research Center, Caryle Murphy. Accessed 20 Feb.2018. www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/05/19/Growing-share-of-u-s-immigrants-have-no-religious-affiliation/.
  17. “Europe’s Growing Muslim Population,” Pew Research Center. Accessed 13 Feb. 2018, www.pewforum.org/2017/11/29/europes-growing-muslim-population/
  18. “Faith in Flux,” Pew Research Center. Accessed 20 Feb. 2018, www.pewresearch.org/2009/04/27/faith-in-flux/.
  19. This data takes into account switching in-between Catholics and Protestants as well.
  20. “The Share of Americans who leave Islam is offset by those who become Muslim,” Pew Research Center, Besheer Muhamed and Elizabeth Pdorebarac Sciupac. Accessed 20 Feb 2018. www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018//01/26/the-share-of-americans-who-leave-islam-is-offset-by-those-who-become-muslim.
  21. Roughly 22% of American Christians who were raised as Christians do not identify themselves as Christians, so it is roughly the same as Muslim data. Share of Christians who have converted from other religions into Christianity is only 6%. (“The Share of Americans who leave Islam is offset by those who become Muslim,” Pew Research Center, Besheer Muhamed and Elizabeth Pdorebarac Sciupac. Accessed 20 Feb 2018. www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018//01/26/the-share-of-americans-who-leave-islam-is-offset-by-those-who-become-muslim.)
  22. “The Share of Americans who leave Islam is offset by those who become Muslim,” Pew Research Center, Besheer Muhamed and Elizabeth Pdorebarac Sciupac. Accessed 20 Feb 2018. www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018//01/26/the-share-of-americans-who-leave-islam-is-offset-by-those-who-become-muslim.
  23. For example, they did not like its teaching or were fed up of terrorism/fanaticism etc.
  24. “The Share of Americans who leave Islam is offset by those who become Muslim,” Pew Research Center, Besheer Muhamed and Elizabeth Pdorebarac Sciupac. Accessed 20 Feb 2018. www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018//01/26/the-share-of-americans-who-leave-islam-is-offset-by-those-who-become-muslim.
  25. “Tolerance and Tension: Islam and Christianity in Sub-Saharan Africa,” Pew Research Center. Accessed 13 Mar. 2018, www.pewforum.org/2010/04/15/executive-summary-islam-and-christianity-in-sub-saharan-africa/.
  26. “Latest Trends in Religious Restrictions and Hostilities,” Pew Research Center. Accessed 21 Jan. 2018, http://www.pewforum.org/2015/02/26/religious-hostilites/.
  27. Robert Barro and Jason Hwang and Rachel McCleary. “Religious Conversion in 40 countries.” Journal for the Scientific study of Religion. 49, (1) (March 2010): 15 – 36.
  28. “The Sunni-Shia divide: Where they live, what they believe and how they view each other,” Pew Research Center, Michael Lipka. Accessed 18 Jun. 2018, www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/06/18/the-sunni-shia-divide-wherre-they-live-what-they-believe-and-how-they-view-each-other/.
  29. “World’s Muslims Religion, Politics, Policies overview,” Pew Research Center. Accessed 17 Feb. 18, www.pewforum.org/2013/04/30/the-worlds-muslims-religion-politics-society-overview/.
  30. They include China and certain Central Asian Muslim-majority countries.
  31. They include Turkey and Syria
  32. “Key Facts about Government favoured Religion around the World,” Pew Research Center, David Masci. Accessed 18 Feb. 2018, www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/10/03/Key-facts-about-government-favoured-religion-around-the-world/.
  33. “In 30 Countries Heads of States must belong to a Certain Religion,” Pew Research Center, Angelina E. Theodorou. Accessed 17 Feb. 2018, www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/07/22/in-30-cuntries-heads-of-state-must-belong-to-a-certain-religion/.
  34. “Key Facts about Government favoured Religion around the World,” Pew Research Center, David Masci. Accessed 18 Feb. 2018, www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/10/03/Key-facts-about-government-favoured-religion-around-the-world/.
  35. “64 countries have religious symbols on their national flags,” Pew Research Center, Angelina E. Theodorou. Accessed 18 Feb. 2018, www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/11/25/64-countries-have-religious-symbols-on-their-national-flags/.
  36. Organization of Islamic. Accessed 16 Feb. 2018, https://www.oic-oci.org/states/?lan=en.
  37. Its current members are Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Bangladesh, Benin, Burkina-Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Gabon, Gambia, Guyana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Kyrgyz Republic, Lebanon, Libya, Maldives, Mali, Malaysia, Mauritania, Morocco, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sudan, Syria, Surinam, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, Yemen.
  38. Nathanial Harris, Systems of Government – Monarchy. (Evans Brothers, 2009) 10.
  39. Sean Conant. The Gettysburg Address: Perspectives on Linconl’s Greatest Speech. (New York. NY: Oxford University press, 2015) IX.
  40. “World’s Muslims Religion, Politics, Policies overview,” Pew Research Center. Accessed 17 Feb. 18, www.pewforum.org/2013/04/30/the-worlds-muslims-religion-politics-society-overview/.
  41. “World’s Muslims Religion, Politics, Policies overview,” Pew Research Center. Accessed 17 Feb. 18, www.pewforum.org/2013/04/30/the-worlds-muslims-religion-politics-society-overview/.
  42. About 80% of Muslims living in Indonesia, Pakistan, turkey, Palestine, Jordan, Egypt, and Lebanon want their countries to be prosperous. (“Muslim-Western Tensions Persist,” Pew Research Center. Accessed 23 Feb. 2018, www.pewglobal.org/2011/07/21/muslim-western-tensions-persist/.)
  43. “The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index,” The 26/ Sep. 2018, Economist.accessedachttps://infographics.economist.com/2018/DemocracyIndex/
  44. “Which countries still outlaw apostasy and blasphemy?” Pew Research Center, Angelina E. Theodorou. Accessed 18 Jan. 2018, www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/07//29/which-countries-still-outlaw-apostasy-and-blasphemy/.
  45. “Which countries still outlaw apostasy and blasphemy?” Pew Research Center, Angelina E. Theodorou. Accessed 18 Jan. 2018, www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/07//29/which-countries-still-outlaw-apostasy-and-blasphemy/.
  46. James Kurth. “Western Civilization: Our Tradition”. Intercollegiate Review. 39 (1/2) (2003): 5-13.
  47. Henry Kissinger. Diplomacy (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1994) 447 – 454.
  48. William Thompson, and Joseph Hickey, Society in Focus. Boston, MA: Pearson, 2005.
  49. Arnold J. Toynbee. Change and Habit. The Challenge of our time (oxford: Oxford University press, 1966) 153 – 56.
  50. lately the term ‘the West’ is getting out of favour among the political leaders of Western countries, it is being replaced by ‘international community’.
  51. “Muslim-Western Tensions Persist,” Pew Research Center. Accessed 23 Feb. 2018, www.pewglobal.org/2011/07/21/muslim-western-tensions-persist/.
  52. “Muslim-Western Tensions Persist,” Pew Research Center. Accessed 23 Feb. 2018, www.pewglobal.org/2011/07/21/muslim-western-tensions-persist/.
  53. “Muslim-Western Tensions Persist,” Pew Research Center. Accessed 23 Feb. 2018, www.pewglobal.org/2011/07/21/muslim-western-tensions-persist/.
  54. “Muslims and Islam key findings in the US and around the World,” Pew Research Center, Michael Lipka. Accessed on 16 Feb. 2018, www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/08/09/muslims-and-islam-key-findings-in-the-u-s-and -around-the-world/.
  55. “Facts about Atheists,” Pew Research Center, Michael Lipka. Accessed 16 Feb. 2018, www.pewresearch .org/fact-tank/2016/06/01/10-facts-bout-atheists/.
  56. “Muslims and Islam key findings in the US and around the World,” Pew Research Center, Michael Lipka. Accessed on 16 Feb. 2018, www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/08/09/muslims-and-islam-key-findings-in-the-u-s-and -around-the-world/.
  57. “Muslim-Western Tensions Persist,” Pew Research Center. Accessed 23 Feb. 2018, www.pewglobal.org/2011/07/21/muslim-western-tensions-persist/.
  58. “Muslim-Western Tensions Persist,” Pew Research Center. Accessed 23 Feb. 2018, www.pewglobal.org/2011/07/21/muslim-western-tensions-persist/.
  59. “Muslim-Western Tensions Persist,” Pew Research Center. Accessed 23 Feb. 2018, www.pewglobal.org/2011/07/21/muslim-western-tensions-persist/.
  60. “21st Century wars,” The History Guy. Accessed 14 Mar. 2018, https://www.historyguy.com/21st_century_wars.html.
  61. Photo credit Associated Press.  Lee Moran. “Ten Years of Terror: Afghan War in Pictures’” Daily Mail. 7 Oct. 2011.
  62. “21st Century wars,” The History Guy.  Accessed 14 Mar. 2018, https://www.historyguy.com/21st_century_wars.html.
  63. “Timeline: US intervention in Afghanistan 2001 to 2017,” Aljazeera, 21 August 2017. Accessed 26 Mar. 2018, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/08/2001-2017-intervention-afghanistan-170822035036797.html.
  64. “ World publics welcome global trade – but not immigration,” Pew Research Center. Accessed 21 Feb. 2018, www.pewglobal.org/2007/10/04/world-publics-welcome-global-trade-but-not-immigration/.
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